Some random thoughts

RDW should merge with LUNR

They both just did major M&A deals, LanteriS and Edge, so they’re no strangers to it.

Neither company is particularly strong. Space has a ton of competition. It’s an attractive and flashy market, and there are many new startups fighting for crumbs, which pressures the big players. By merging, they could create operational symbiosis and a much more durable moat.

LUNR is great at everything moon related. RDW knows a thing or two about that through Deep Space Systems. Plus, RDW has state of the art inspection and navigation cameras that will be used in the Artemis mission. They will also provide sun sensors for the Orion spacecraft. LUNR has power and propulsion systems that will be used in the Artemis program. There are several synergies that could be explored here.

RDW has some of the best space solar arrays, if not the best, with contracts with NASA. Both have LEO and GEO satellites after LUNR acquired LanteriS, and RDW would add VLEO to that mix. They could benefit from economies of scale and cut a lot of fat. Both have poor margins, and they would clearly benefit from more scale and tighter execution.

Besides this merger, RDW should spin out their drone business to unlock shareholder value. Edge Autonomy is legit and has real contracts. In this market, blending it with RDW for a 1.3B market cap makes no sense. Edge alone could trade at nearly 1B.

It would also make more sense for Edge Autonomy to merge with RCAT and create a multi domain, drone focused platform by adding LRR capabilities to RCAT’s SRR and maritime mix, instead of whatever Frankenstein RDW tried to assemble.

Probably will never happen, but if it ever does, I’ll come back to this.