Daniel Romero (@hypertechinvest): "Jefferies is bullish on Amazon with a $300 price target The market is focused on three things: very high AI capex, weak near-term free cash flow, and AWS growing slower than Azure and Google Cloud. Jefferies thinks those are temporary pressures. Their view is that FY26 c…"

Jefferies is bullish on Amazon with a $300 price target

The market is focused on three things: very high AI capex, weak near-term free cash flow, and AWS growing slower than Azure and Google Cloud. Jefferies thinks those are temporary pressures.
Their view is that FY26 capex of around $200 billion is hurting free cash flow now, but that spending is tied to real demand, backlog growth, and long-duration AI commitments. As capacity comes online and capex growth slows, they expect free cash flow to recover.
On AWS, they think growth will reaccelerate through backlog conversion, more AI revenue, and a better enterprise mix.
On AI, they argue Amazon’s strength is not having the most visible model. It is having scale, infrastructure, and a model-agnostic platform for enterprise workloads.
On retail, they do not think AI agents break the business because Amazon still controls fulfillment, execution, and high-intent commerce.

Jefferies says Amazon is trading near a 10-year trough at roughly 11x NTM EV/EBITDA, and their SOTP implies about 46% upside.

Apr 12

4:30 AM