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The future Middle East is likely to entail a nuclear arms race. In 2026 two things have changed:
1) US support for Saudi nuclear enrichment has been conditioned on normalisation of ties with Israel. That condition has now been scrapped by Trump.
2) There were no credible signs that the now slain Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, wanted nukes. He had issued a fatwa against nuclear weapons and likely saw threshold capacity as sufficient to extract concessions from the US. That approach cost Khamenei the elder his life and threatened the survival of the Islamic Republic. Even without the US-Saudi deal, current Iranian leaders have a strengthened incentive to go for nukes.
So while Trump claims he’s preventing Iran from getting nukes, his actions are likely to have the opposite effect🤔

