We keep overestimating how hard the energy transition will be. The reason is: We diagnose the problem in the wrong way. When people picture replacing fossil fuels, they assume we need to match today's energy inputs one-for-one with renewables, swapping dirty units for clean ones at the same scale. That assumption is the Primary Energy Fallacy and it distorts the picture.

The missing piece is efficiency and the huge amount of waste heat related to combustion processes. Electrifying doesn't just change the fuel, it shrinks the amount of energy you need in the first place, which means total demand falls as we electrify. I call this 'Electrofficiency'. As a result, the problem we're trying to solve turns out to be considerably smaller than the headline figures suggest.

I talked through all of it with Richard Howard on Aurora Energy Research's Energy Unplugged podcast podcast this week. We spoke about where electrification is already accelerating, where it's stuck, and what governments would need to do to make electrification more viable across the economy.

Have a listen!