I've noticed a pattern in many setups I've found before the market did: the company guides conservatively, the market anchors on the guide, and nobody checks what’s happening downstream to reason from first principles.

Soitec guided photonics revenue at 20–30% annual growth.

Their biggest silicon photonics foundry customer announced a 5x capacity expansion in 2026.

Revenue growth on 5x volume doesn't come from 500% price hikes.

The gap between the guide and the supply chain signal is where the alpha lives. That's what I read before the consensus does.

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