🔔 The Daily Semi-Cap — May 5, 2026

📊 SMH: $522.69 (+3.14%)

📈 Earnings:

• AMD — $10.3B rev (est ~$9.9B), $1.37 EPS (est ~$1.29). Non-GAAP GM 55%, +38% YoY. Q2 guide calls for ~$11.2B rev and ~56% non-GAAP GM, with data center up 57% YoY and the stock up ~9% after hours.

• LITE — $808.4M rev (est ~$810M), $2.37 EPS (est ~$2.27). Non-GAAP GM 47.9%, +90% YoY. Q4 guide implies ~$985M revenue at the midpoint and $2.95 EPS at the midpoint, though shares initially traded down ~6% after hours.

🔥 Major Developments:

• AMD doubled its long-term server CPU TAM view to more than $120B by 2030, now expecting >35% annual growth as agentic AI pushes more orchestration-heavy compute into EPYC-heavy server fleets.

• Leading-edge wafer scarcity is becoming the cleanest AI-infra bottleneck read-through: 3nm/5nm supply remains tight, fabless customers are fighting for capacity, and CPU/GPU/ASIC pricing power keeps shifting upstream toward foundry and constrained substrate layers.

• InP moved back to the center of the AI optics debate: datacenter lasers still depend on 3-4 inch InP wafers, crystal growth is slow, and new capacity takes 2-3 years — exactly the kind of upstream constraint that can matter more than module assembly.

• Astera Labs highlighted its Scorpio X-Series 320-lane switch architecture, aimed at higher-radix GPU fabrics with fewer hops, lower latency, and lower system cost as scale-up networking becomes a bigger AI rack BOM line item.