Many believe the crypto cycle is done for another 12 to 18 months and that we’re firmly back in bear market territory.

It’s an easy story to buy.

Prices have been trending down since October 10th, 2025, and with the Iran situation pushing oil prices higher, which is effectively a tax on the entire system, the macro backdrop hasn’t exactly inspired confidence.

But zoom out for a second. The ISM, which is a solid read on financial conditions, is pointing towards improving expectations. In plain English, the market is quietly signalling that things could start picking up again.

In my view, that sets the stage for a potential rally somewhere between mid-year and the midterms, especially with Kevin Warsh expected to replace Jerome Powell. That shift alone could change the tone of policy and liquidity.

This is where most people get it wrong. When prices drop, they drift. They become tourists. They “take a break.”

But this is the phase that actually matters. The pain you feel now is the price of admission for the upside later. This is where positions are built, not chased.

Stick to battle-tested blue chips.

We’ll win in the end.