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I have little expertise of the of likelihood of trial or congress passing new rules. Both feel meaningfully greater than zero. Look at ELON 420, the power of unlimited funds and the best private lawyers vs the SEC on display. Hard to think they don't at least have a 10 or 20% chance in court + congress.
I think you underestimate the value of their consumer franchise as crypto gateway, dominance in the huge US market and how durable that can be. Also if they do win how much goodwill they will hav…
It seems like you would agree with Andrew's assessment that this a great bet. You give Coinbase a 10%-20% chance of winning in court+Congress. Andrew's view is that if Coinbase loses, it's basically a 100% return for the short. So using your probabilities, it seems like an 80%-90% probability of a Coinbase legal loss which delivers close to a 100% return. Is that fair? That seems a lot better than picking up pennies in front of a steamroller as you described it, especially given Andrew's view t…
Let me think this through
I think the 2 year high case for coin is $500. That was most people's hopeful price target after ipo before crypto slowed. I think low case is $0.
Also I didn't give it 10-20 I said hard to think of could be less than, but I am uncertain the true number, so that is the lower bound of my estimate.
There are obviously in between cases of high or low. So this is sort of garbage but if we say 30% of zero and 70% of $500 you have an EV of $350 so no, I still think it's pennies in front of a steamroller.
Think my high is too high? I lost 7 figures personally shorting tesla around $300 pre split. Worst imaginable case felt like $1000 yet it peaked at something like $2000 pre split.
Coinbase wins this outright this stick could rocket. Shorting well run companies for price or event factors is dumb imo, your mileage my vary. This is I think the only way I have lost seven figures in my life don't care to repeat it.