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I think this take is very good. Here’s my take: If DeSantis gets past Trump (far from certain), and inflation, gas prices, and the border are still too high and a mess, respectively, Biden will be vulnerable--and will probably get beat. I say that as someone who strongly dislikes DeSantis. I think voters’ intuitions will be that Biden is old and past his prime and just isn’t governing competently. BUT, there is still lots of time for those things to get better, or at least for Biden to stick to…

I don't agree: "mediscare" is the most powerful attack the Democrats have, and Biden knows exactly how to make it land against somebody like De Santis. The attack would be doubly powerful if Trump himself had made it during the primary. In the event Trump loses I assume he won't concede and will keep talking about how "Tiny D" is trying to take medicare away from seniors.

I’m with you. I think it’s the BEST line of attack from Biden. But I worry it won’t be enough if inflation and gas are too high and the border is still a mess. Biden can only do so much on those issues, especially immigration, but he needs to be out in front and be willing to reduce the deficit, permit more access to drilling--something--to show Americans he is doing all he can to ease economic pressures, even if it means pissing off the left flank of his party. It won’t be easy, but it might be necessary.

I agree, although I guess I’m more optimistic about Biden than you are. It just seems as clear to me as these things get that Trump is the Republican candidate with the best chance of winning. People shrug past the prospect of Trump being a sore loser, or concoct fantasies about DeSantis winning Trump’s support by promising a pardon. But Trump has already heavily hinted that DeSantis is a child molester and the race has barely begun.

The Trump wild card will determine a lot. It’s a good point. Does he tell his voters to stay home and screw DeSantis over, should DeSantis even win? Does he run as an Independent (I think less likely)? That considered, I like Biden’s chances better. I was envisioning a DeSantis vs. Biden race WITHOUT Trump in the picture. Ha.

If there is one thing we know about the man it is that he won’t admit he lost an election. Republicans risk catastrophic, Ted-Cruz-looses-in-Texas style defeat if Trump actively opposes their nominee (he doesn’t even have to actually run). They are ignoring this now, but when it snaps into focus I assume that they will do the tactically sensible thing and pick Trump.

If Trump is really gonna be indicted, like he seems to think, we will see how this plays out, too.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the Republicans will have a hard time beating even indicted Trump. They'd have to actually say that Trump lost the last election, that Trump is corrupt, the indictment isn't a conspiracy by the people who stole the last election. Most influential Republicans *think* this, but only marginal figures like Mitt Romney or Larry Hogan *say* it. If it is politically impossible for DeSantis to say what he and people like him (e.g. the hosts of Fox News) clearly think about …

My gut response to this scenario is they’ll pull a Chris Sununu type of dodge (Trump did his service, did some great things, but we’re moving on), but what precisely are they going to say about his indictment? That he deserves it? Play into the deep state narrative (which works to Biden’s advantage)? How do you play that without alienating the base? The indictment may hamstring Trump from campaigning, which may give DeSantis the advantage, but I’m honestly not sure how they’re going to “move on” without some disadvantage. It’s not gonna be easy.