A grim “future anniversary”

Today marks two years until the Estonian city of Narva is conquered in a Russian hybrid invasion - if we are to believe Carlo Masala's book «If Russia Wins».

The small, roughly one-hundred-page book is written as a narrative instead of a dry analysis, and is set in the near future after Ukraine has succumbed to superior forces, renounced hope of NATO membership, and ceded around 20 percent of its territory to Russia.

Despite insistent warnings from President Volodymyr Zelensky, many Europeans are actually relieved. Few see Russia as a real security threat, and populists from both right and left have free rein to attack all those who «wasted» money on unnecessarily prolonging the war.

On March 27, 2028, Narva awakens to the sound of explosions as two brigades of masked Russian soldiers cross the border river. The Estonian border guards are quickly overpowered. Parts of the population sympathetic to Russia have already been demonstrating for several weeks, and have also been supplied with Russian weapons. Therefore, it only takes a few hours before the Russian flag flies over the city hall.

Masala has clarified in several interviews that the choice of Narva is coincidental. The book is intended as a wake-up call for all who live in the belief that heroes always win in the end, which in this case means that Russia does not attack us, democracy survives, and the West remains strong and united.

The actual theme is neither Narva nor Estonia, but whether Europe is prepared for an attack and whether the USA will come to its aid when it comes down to it – especially when it concerns such a limited but still serious enough violation of sovereignty. In other words, a topic that has only become more relevant since the book was released last August.