Japan Homebuilders (1911, 1928) are starting to look under-owned and worth a closer, especially with both names reporting in the next few weeks.

Sumitomo Forestry (1911) stands out as the cleaner cyclical play versus 1928. The company reports EOD and the setup into the print looks interesting. Sumitomo quietly built a US housing powerhouse through a string of brilliant acquisitions from 2013–2016, locking up high-growth corridors and vertically integrating the entire "wood cycle" from sawmills to finished homes. 

Today, the US housing and real estate segment alone generates roughly ¥1T+ in revenue.

Fidelity has historically been the marginal buyer in the name and positioning still feels light. Wouldn't be surprising to see them circle back around these levels.

The Australia angle is also under-discussed. The 2024 move to 51% ownership of Metricon gives Sumitomo exposure to a stronger near-term backdrop than the US: structural housing shortage, immigration-driven demand holding firm, volumes rising, and margins stabilising. FX is helping too, with AUD strength providing a natural offset to any USD softness (109.2 vs last quarter's 94.92). Australia is quietly becoming a real secondary growth engine for the group.

That said, the US still drives the story, with >2.5× the sales versus Australia. So where do we think the US goes from here?

Macro is starting to line up. The jobs print looked softer beneath the surface, revisions were heavy, and markets are drifting back toward the "rates still going down" narrative. Add recent policy pressure from the Trump administration on builders to prioritise construction over buybacks, and the setup looks ready.

Sekisui House (1928) reports Mar 4, we will be watching both names closely.