Nvidia, as part of its aggressive strategy to control both demand and supply, has spread itself across the entire AI industry like an octopus with its hands everywhere — from tens of billions invested in AI startups, neoclouds, and infrastructure, to swapping GPUs for cloud credits and equity worth dozens of billions of dollars, alongside hundreds of billions in supply commitments.

Which means that if one domino falls, Nvidia gets hit from every direction. That could lead to massive write-offs across investments, inventory, and accounts receivable from neoclouds that may not be able to pay, etc.

At the same time, tens of millions of GPUs will flow into the secondary market, putting heavy pressure on GPU pricing, Nvidia’s Margin and driving prices down significantly.