The bottom line is that markets are holding together remarkably well when you consider how much bigger this shock is than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On any given day before this war, 20 million barrels of oil transited the Strait of Hormuz, which is roughly three times Russia’s daily oil exports. This shock is therefore at least three time as big 2022. Taking this into consideration, markets are certainly pricing some stress, but we’re nowhere near an apocalypse.