The fact that software engineers are among the first to feel the effects of AI is perhaps evidence that organizational behavior is a big influence. When AI touches an industry that’s comfortable with deploying new systems (like tech itself), the technology moves faster than in more friction-heavy institutions (like health care). This is why many people tend to predict job loss too fast. They assume a simple process of elimination, in which as soon as AIs surpass some complex human ability, we scratch off the skillset and hand it over to the robots. No one is going to make perfect sequential predictions of who loses their job in what order, but there must be a better mental model than just assuming we should all be looking for jobs with that ineffable human touch.