Chase the gap or wait for the fade?

On the upside, if we just look at the S&P 500, we are looking at roughly +2% to +3% potential upside. On the downside, a -1% to -2% pullback back toward the 200-day is a reasonable expectation.

Not a great setup. But maybe good enough.

Historically, you would get paid to wait. Let the market fade back to the 200-day, then step in with better risk-reward.

But this market is different.

Momentum is driving price, and momentum can extend further than most expect, especially when positioning is offside.

That changes the playbook.

Instead of choosing one path, take a two-step approach.

If you are underexposed, take some pressure off. Do not go all-in. Do not stay frozen. Buy one or two names you actually want to own beyond today. Names you are comfortable holding if things get messy.

Then let price prove itself.

If it holds and trends higher, add. If it fails, step aside.

Simple.

There is no perfect entry. There never is. This is about doing the best you can with the information in front of you, not trying to nail the exact low.

A few months from now, the exact entry will not matter.

Your process will.