For 50 years, semiconductor progress was lithography-defined: print smaller patterns.

That era is ending. The new constraint is materials engineering: deposition, etch, CMP, and advanced packaging at atomic scale.

Applied Materials’ 1QFY26 wasn’t just a beat. Q2 guidance crushed the Street, and CEO Gary Dickerson publicly retired the industry’s “one-third / one-third / one-third” growth framework.

HBM is a big reason: 3–4x more wafer starts per bit, rising die counts per stack, and compounding packaging complexity.

I wrote up why this matters, and the 4 signposts I’m watching next.