Forget the West’s caricatured portrayal of Russian society. In Russia the range of opinions is remarkably wide. People from all walks of life vigorously debate the conduct, strategy, and future of the Special Military Operation (SMO) in open and often heated discussions. The same is true within intellectual, political and military circles.

A clear example is the long article published in the influential daily Kommersant by military expert Andrey Ilnitsky, a retired official who previously served in an advisory capacity. I

llnitsky’s article, titled “Escalation — The Shortest Path to Peace”, kommersant.ru/doc/87798… is an important contribution to Russia’s strategic debate.

The author argues that a carefully calibrated, step-by-step escalation represents the fastest route to achieving Russia’s objectives in the SMO and securing a lasting peace after victory.

Ilnitsky broadly supports the escalation-oriented approach advocated by prominent thinker Sergei Karaganov, but differs with him on operational and tactical details. He opposes skipping rungs on the escalation ladder or immediately resorting to tactical nuclear strikes against NATO territory. Instead, he calls for a gradual, consistent, and relentless climb up the escalation ladder.

Ilnitsky’s proposed stages:

• Stage 1: Systematically disable (without necessarily destroying) approximately 30 key facilities that sustain Ukraine’s war effort — including power plants, ports, major railway hubs, logistics centers, and metallurgy plants.

• Stage 2: Complete the destruction of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex.

• Stage 3: Strike NATO’s main forward bases in the Baltic states (Ādaži, Rukla, Šiauliai, Tapa, and others).

• Stage 4: Target key NATO logistics hubs such as Rzeszów in Poland and Constanța in Romania, along with Western enterprises producing weapons for Ukraine.

The author believes that successfully implementing just the first two stages — conducted exclusively on Ukrainian territory — would be enough to render the Ukrainian state largely dysfunctional and force the West to reconsider its proxy war strategy.

Should the West continue its aggression, further strikes on military infrastructure in NATO’s eastern flank countries would be justified, as their use of airspace and territory to support attacks on Russia constitutes a casus belli.

Ilnitsky concludes that the exact choice of measures and pace of escalation must ultimately rest on the political wisdom of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, President Putin, and the professional judgment of the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff.

P.S. Escalation is already well underway. Russia’s systematic campaign against Ukrainian fuel infrastructure is producing visible results: the Ukrainian Armed Forces are losing mobility, struggling to move reserves quickly, and facing increasingly severe fuel shortages at the front.