I think we disagree about the purpose of betting here, since you see it as heartless. We put a low dollar amount on the bet because the point isn't to make money, but to clarify where our anticipations about the shape of the future differ, and to have a reason to check in about what actually happened + what we should learn from being right or wrong.
I make bets to clarify disagreements on non-abortion related topics. I'm almost certainly losing one on AI-related unemployment to Lyman Stone at the end of the year. Taking different sides of the bet on that topic doesn't mean either of us are rooting for the side we took or will celebrate being right, but that we disagree about what's happening next and want to get better at thinking about our diagreement.
So if only 25 doctors, or 15 or 5 are prosecuted, Leah, you win? Or if they are charged but the charges are eventually dropped, after putting them through Hell and destroying their careers, you win? Or if they are neither convicted or charged, but fired,sending a message to other doctors, you win? There is something so blithe and heartle…
Dec 19
at
2:08 PM
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