Baffled as to why anyone in the Harris campaign would single out Michigan as worrisome. With the obvious caveat that early voting has limited predictive power--especially two weeks out--the numbers have been fantastic, arguably better than any other battleground state. Detroit in particularly has been a gem, with a ballot return rate higher than all other large municipalities and overall turnout in line with the state. This is a city where turnout in 2020 was 20 percentage points below the state average; hiking turnout from 50% to 55-60% would be huge. Ingham, Oakland, and Washtenaw have also been looking really solid.

If Harris can hold or expand our margins in Dem population centers and chip away at Ottawa and Livingston, she'll be in really good shape. Personally, I expect Michigan to be the best of the seven battlegrounds for us.