This creates a binary. Either the ratio holds, and US exports to Europe plateau or decline once the crisis normalizes—in which case Europe’s largest supplier isn’t a structural lifeline. Or the US proves to be an exception to the pattern, which would itself be a major finding: it would mean the world’s largest gas consumer can defy the gravitational pull. Until falsified, the geopolitical direction of travel seems to confirm the ratio’s logic. In a world of contested shipping lanes, reshoring, and transactional alliances, the incentive to lock up molecules for domestic use only strengthens. Next time a European leader flies south to sign a partnership agreement, run the ratio. It will tell you more than the communiqué.