Less Noise More Signal (@lessnoisemoresignal): "One of the key reasons we remain cautious is that fiscal flow momentum has been decelerating. If those flows slow while tariffs continue to drain private sector balance sheets, you get a tougher setup for risk assets. The federal deficit data points in the same direction. On a…"

Make money doing the work you believe in

Less Noise, More Signal - curated macro insights

One of the key reasons we remain cautious is that fiscal flow momentum has been decelerating.

If those flows slow while tariffs continue to drain private sector balance sheets, you get a tougher setup for risk assets.

The federal deficit data points in the same direction. On a quarterly basis, the year over year change has been moving back toward zero (less deficit). If the Trump administration keeps pushing ahead with new Section 301 tariffs, that line could move above zero and stay there for a while.

Make money doing the work you believe in

Log in or sign up