Fed funds is at 3.62% and falling as the Fed eases. The 30-year is at 5.11% and rising. The two are pulling apart in real time. The Fed sets the front end, and the Fed is cutting it. The back end answers to supply and to whether anyone still trusts the inflation target, and right now it is climbing in spite of the cuts. When the chair is easing and the long bond rises anyway, the long end has stopped taking its cue from the Fed. That is the whole move in one picture.