Last February, I wrote an op-ed in The Globe and Mail warning that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine carried a stark lesson for Canada. I wrote then: “Here’s the sobering truth: despite all its resilience, despite the heroism of its people, Ukraine may soon find itself outmuscled. If Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin negotiate a settlement, Ukraine could be forced into territorial concessions or a weakened sovereignty.”

Sadly, that warning has materialized. The so-called Trump “peace plan” for Ukraine crafted solely by American and Russian envoys, has now been presented to Kyiv as a package  with a rigid deadline: accept or lose U.S. support. It is a classic great-power squeeze, reminiscent of the strong-arm diktats delivered to smaller European states in the 1930s.

If imposed, the plan would leave Ukraine a diminished, dependent state: surrendering territory, accepting strict limits on its defensive capacity, and barred from closer ties with Europe or NATO. Russia, meanwhile, would be rewarded, its international standing restored without accountability for war crimes. And Washington, under a Trump administration, would seize billions in frozen Russian assets that ought to be used to rebuild Ukraine’s shattered cities and devastated infrastructure. As always, any Trump deal must come with a payoff for the family and the cronies.

At a recent gathering of Western leaders in South Africa, the reaction to the Trump–Putin proposal was one of shock, and then, astonishingly, equivocation. Statements floated the idea that the plan contained “elements worth building on.” Now we see a flurry of unofficial talks led by a junior U.S. Army secretary, a political ally of J.D. Vance - the Darth Vader of Washington. Unsurprisingly, Putin has already slammed shut the door on any meaningful compromise.

The cautionary tale could not be clearer. We are drifting into a world where big powers impose their will without restraint. The post-war architecture of rules, norms, and accountability from Nuremberg and the Geneva Conventions to regional tribunals, the International Criminal Court, the Pinochet indictment, and the Responsibility to Protect once formed a slow but steady arc of justice. Today that arc is bending the other way. We are entering an age of impunity. Might makes right.

For Canada, this is an alarm bell. Ukraine’s struggle exposes the risks of underestimating authoritarian ambition and of assuming that U.S. protection will always align with our interests. The undefended frontier that once offered Canada a cushion of strategic independence now looks dangerously thin as Washington adopts a posture unconstrained by neither law or treaty, and guided by a president who sees the world through the lens of a real-estate dealmaker.as I wrote five months ago: Donald Trump does not covet Canada for our Charter, our social protections, or our multicultural achievements. He covets our resources - our minerals, our water, our oil, our Arctic. Unless we actively shore up the international legal order and help lead a global pushback against great-power aggrandizement, we are exposed.

And we do ourselves no favours when Canadian ministers suggest that the United States alone can “decide what the law is” while attacking small vessels in international waters. Nor when we remain silent as the U.S. vice-president scolds Canada for admitting “too much diversity.” The lesson of Ukraine is simple: a cautionary tale loses all value if we choose to ignore it.