The elevation of Pope Leo XIV is a profound and historic occasion. Like so many around the world, I am praying for him and wishing him and the Church well as his papacy begins.
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So let me get this straight, we finally get an American pope, and some of the America first crowd is mad because he cares about the poor and immigrants. Am i missing something here?
The kind of people that answer poll questions are not representative of the overall electorate. Pollsters have to seriously manipulate the responses they get to try to mimic what the voting public as a whole will do. This requires turn out models which could be WILDLY wrong. Much more wrong than their so-called "margin of error" values that they quote ... those margins assume their sampling is unbiased, but we know that's BS. There is no way they are sampling enough younger voters to measure the effect of Taylor Swift endorsement. They have been massively off in most elections in the last 2 years, because they do not know how to model the effects of the Dobbs decision and abortion ballot measures on turn out, and they don't know how to gauge relative enthusiasm, other than asking respondents whether they are likely yo vote ... which completely misses enthusiasm of the people who don't answer polls. I also suspect that there are a lot of people trolling the pollsters with answers they think pollsters want to hear. A great example last week if polling gone wrong was where a research firm targeted undocumented immigrants who were asked if they were registered to vote - many of them said yes because they thought the pollsters were going to try to get them to register if they said no!