The idea that Venezuela will flood the oil market is the biggest lie being told right now.

Let’s look at how the US supposedly “flooded” the market after taking control over Iraq’s oil.

• 2000 (pre-war / pre-sanctions): 2.8 mbpd

• 2003 (at war): 1.2 mbpd

• 2025: ~4 mbpd

It took nearly a decade just to return to pre-war production and 22 years to increase output by 1.2 mbpd... despite Iraq’s massive reserves.

After the war, it was widely assumed Iraq could reach ~8 mbpd by 2020. Fast forward to 2025, Iraq produces roughly half of that, despite $220B in spending.

Now look at Venezuela. Unlike Iraq, Venezuela produces extra-heavy crude, which is thick like tar:

• It doesn’t flow naturally... it must be melted to reach the surface

• Once extracted, it re-solidifies, requiring diluent for transport

• For every barrel exported, ~0.3 barrels of diluent must be imported

Venezuela's infrastructure is a mess:

• Venezuela suffers from regular blackouts

• Export terminals are degraded

Its oil infrastructure is in worse shape than war-torn Iraq’s

In other words, Venezuela’s oil industry is harder, costlier, and far more time-consuming to rebuild.

From Libya to Iraq, US oil interventions tell a clear story: it takes billions of dollars and a decade of work just to return to pre-war production levels.

This time won’t be different.