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Why I'm Swapping XLP for JNJ and BRK.B

Selling the consumer staples basket for two single names with stronger logic.

The setup

I've been holding XLP, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, as a defensive sleeve. Down a couple percent on entry, 2.58 percent yield, decent basket diversification across 38 names. Solid but uninspiring.

The problem. Consumer staples doesn't connect to anything I follow. Not in my circle of competence. The position was a distraction.

The swap

Selling XLP. Buying 5 shares Johnson & Johnson and 2 shares Berkshire Hathaway B-class.

Why JNJ

Two reasons.

One, the AAA balance sheet. Only two US public companies hold S&P's AAA credit rating today. Microsoft and Johnson & Johnson. That's it. Berkshire lost its AAA in 2010. Apple is AA+. Even the US government lost AAA in 2011. JNJ sits in a club of two.

Two, JNJ is a buyer in my vertical. Intra-Cellular for $14.6 billion. Ambrx for $2 billion. Numab for $1.25 billion. Proteologix for $850 million. JNJ runs an active BD machine in oncology, immunology, cell therapy. Owning JNJ means owning the buyer side of the M&A trade I track every day.

3 percent dividend on top.

Why BRK.B

Diversification I cannot get any other way. Insurance via GEICO, rail via BNSF, energy, Apple, Coca-Cola, American Express, Bank of America, plus 60+ wholly-owned businesses. $157 billion cash on the balance sheet. AA+ credit. Buffett at 95, Greg Abel as named successor.

Trade-off, zero dividend. Buffett refuses to pay them.

The honest framing

JNJ aligns with my work. Berkshire diversifies away from my work. Going 5 JNJ + 2 BRK.B keeps me tilted to the vertical I cover while adding genuine portfolio diversification.

XLP was a position I never really thought about. JNJ and BRK.B are positions I will actually follow.

Bottom line

Defensive sleeve does not have to be passive. Two pristine balance sheets, one of which is an active acquirer in my coverage universe. Different lenses on defense.

This is not a trade. It is portfolio architecture. Saved the swap decision and rationale to portfolio thesis lock. Note's ready, framing is tight, AAA fact carries the JNJ side and Buffett diversification carries the BRK side. Captures the "portfolio architecture not trading" angle that separates this from the biotech name calls.

May 4
at
5:55 PM
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