The departure of a long-serving prime minister often ushers in a fascinating period in Canadian politics: the leadership race. For political nerds like me, it’s a time of intrigue, rivalries, and the jostling of ambition. Leadership races today lack the theatrical drama of the old political conventions, with their live floor fights and multiple ballots, but they still hold plenty of intrigue.

My first taste of this drama was the 1984 Liberal leadership convention following Pierre Trudeau’s exit. It was a contest of personalities, much like the one brewing today. Back then, it boiled down to a clash between two camps. On one side was John Turner, the outsider who’d broken with Trudeau years earlier, akin to the role of Chrystia Freeland,  combined with the unknown economic whiz that Mark Carney might play today. Turner faced off against Pierre Trudeau’s loyal insider, Jean Chrétien—trusted and tested, much like Dominic LeBlanc appears to be now in Justin Trudeau’s cabinet.

The irony of history repeating itself doesn’t stop there. Jean Chrétien, Trudeau Senior’s getaway driver in the 1970s, rose to become the standard-bearer of continuity for the Liberals. Dominic LeBlanc, who actually drove for Chrétien as a young man, now seems poised to fill that same role for Justin Trudeau. Political life in Canada is full of these poetic repetitions.

The current rumblings in Ottawa suggest Justin Trudeau’s time at the helm may be winding down, whether by electoral defeat or a leadership transition. If that’s true, the cast vying to succeed him promises a riveting spectacle. There’s Freeland, the globally connected and sharp-tongued former deputy PM, whose tensions with Trudeau over substance versus style have finally boiled over. Then there’s LeBlanc, the steady, loyal soldier who has been Trudeau’s go-to problem solver. Francois-Philippe Champagne, Melanie Joly, and Anita Anand also hover in the wings, each with their own ambitions and strategies.

And, of course, there’s Mark Carney. Unburdened by years of cabinet service under Trudeau, he stands apart, calculating his odds like a cautious investor eyeing a volatile stock. Picture Carney with a Geiger counter, measuring the radioactive fallout from Trudeau’s tenure, keeping his distance while others, like Freeland and LeBlanc, show clear signs of exposure. "As a numbers guy, I can report the situation isn’t good," he might quip in an editorial cartoon.

The parallels to 1984 are striking, but the stakes feel higher. The Liberal Party isn’t just deciding on a leader; it’s grappling with what kind of party it wants to be in a world that demands harder power and clearer vision. Trudeau’s brand of progressive optimism has hit a wall, leaving his successors to wrestle with a much harsher geopolitical and domestic reality.

For political nerds, it’s the best show in town. And while the leadership race won’t be decided on a dramatic convention floor, the behind-the-scenes manoeuvring will be just as compelling. Keep an eye on the contenders—Canada’s next chapter is being written in their ambitions and alliances.

Justin Trudeau’s tenure as Prime Minister appears increasingly precarious, with his recent handling of key figures like Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, and Dominic LeBlanc highlighting both his diminished political capital and his inability to manage growing discontent within his own ranks. The failed bid to recruit Carney as a stabilizing force in government backfired, alienating Freeland, his former ally, and elevating LeBlanc as a more likely successor. Meanwhile, grassroots frustration and high-profile defections within the Liberal Party reflect a growing consensus that Trudeau’s leadership, once an asset, has become a liability in the face of a resurgent Conservative opposition and mounting internal strife.

Enjoy the December 20, 2024 making-of animated editorial cartoon below. Please subscribe to my Substack newsletter, if you haven’t already. Posts come out every Friday as I summarize the week that was in my editorial cartoons. What you’re reading now is regarded as a “note”, which is used to help compose my weekly posts and showcase the animated versions of my daily editorial cart