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BREAKING NEWS 🚨 The 2nd-most-expensive US stock market in 150 years just printed.
37.9
That's the current Shiller P/E10.
+114% above the 150-year mean of 17.7. Only one reading in the entire historical record has ever been higher: March 2000 at 44.2.
📊 Where this print sits across history:
• 1929 peak: 32.6 → +84% above mean
• 1966 peak: 24.1 → +36% above mean
• 2000 peak: 44.2 → +149% above mean
• 2007 peak: 27.5 → +55% above mean
• 2021 peak: 38.6 → +118% above mean
• Today: 37.9 → +114% above mean
Readings beyond +2 standard deviations have occurred in just ~3.4% of all monthly observations on record. We are statistically in the right tail of the entire 150-year distribution.
The market is not "a bit rich." It is priced exactly like every prior cycle-ending top.
#valuation#macro#equities
Also in the cross-asset return distributions starting from each of these historical peaks something big just emerged.
Full breakdown in my article 👇
