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1/ Prelimiminary benchmark to the level of nonfarm payroll employment as of March 2025: -911,000 (-0.6%). Large and negative, though not out of line with what most were expecting.

Important reminders:

  • Household survey 100% unaffected (unemployment rate, prime working age epop)

  • Post-March-2025 data untouched

  • The unrevised time series remain in place until early 2026

  • Final revision probably slightly less negative

Sep 9
at
2:14 PM

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