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Tallarita's sophisticated analysis of Carney's Davos speech identifies a "Thucydidean slip" - invoking "the strong do what they can, weak must suffer what they must" while proposing to build something "more just." If justice is just fiction (Athenian realism), then on what basis can you build something "more just"?
But I'm not puzzled by Carney as a statesman. He's diagnosing a real rupture: the post-1945 order (open sea lanes, stable finance, free trade, collective security) constrained and structured great power competition for 80 years. It also delivered real public goods. Now great powers weaponize integration itself. Middle powers must respond collectively, not wait for restoration.
What Carney does not address is the domestic dimension: When the dominant power removes constraints on itself - not just internationally but internally - the pattern accelerates catastrophically.
Trump: no congressional deliberation, Supreme Court immunity ruling, Rubio as both SecState and NSA (roles meant to check each other), 60% unpopular but unchecked — all leading to a war launched on Israeli timetable without preparation. Two weeks: 175 dead schoolgirls, $210B cost, Saudi Arabia refuses cooperation, Russian sanctions reduced.
The American Founders and the post-1945 architects understood this. They didn't try to resolve justice vs necessity philosophically. They designed institutions to constrain leaders before catastrophe - assuming fallibility, not wisdom.
When those constraints disappear: Melos → Sicily (3 years). "Iron laws" → Iran (2 weeks).
Middle powers can't fix US institutional collapse. Only Americans can. But the Athenian pattern my esssay Iron Laws of the Strong traces doesn't care who's responsible. It just produces rubble.
