I'm not fully in touch with the hold that Collins allegedly has over Maine voters but I think her air of infallibility is likely overstated. If the partisan tide is strong enough, she's not gonna be able to withstand it. I don't see her being a forever outlier to the laws of political gravity any more than Collin Peterson, Jon Tester, or Sherrod Brown were. Nor do I think it'll take a rock star Democratic challenger to take her down.

Bottom line: any scenario where the Democrats win back or tie the Senate in 2026 will include picking up the seat in Maine. There's no scenario where they pick up Iowa, Alaska, or Texas and don't get Maine. Either the tide is strong enough to wash away Collins or the tide falls far short.