The unusually high (of recent cycles anyway) degree of poll divergence between the Presidential race and the Senate contests has been one of the most fascinating trends this year, especially as it continues to endure post-Labor Day. I keep waiting for the races to settle but they haven't yet.

The two most intriguing examples are Arizona and Nevada. As I said yesterday, it's hard to reconcile that there are tens of thousands of Arizona voters who think Trump is acceptable but draw the line with Kari Lake, although another poster sagely pointed out that Hispanic men could account for a good share of the ticket-splitters. The Nevada situation is stranger as Jacky Rosen strikes me as being about as Generic D as they come so her continually running far ahead of Harris is confusing. I'd be surprised if the two races didn't converge substantially by November. Recall that Mark Kelly appeared to be running far ahead of Biden in 2020 polling but by election night the divergence was less than 2 points.

Another 2020 Senate race with a pretty big spread was Mississippi where Mike Espy ran 6 points closer to his challenger than Biden did.