I was surprised by Virginia and New Hampshire. Both seemed uniquely suited to trend Democrat this year, especially Virginia. Even there I underestimated the nonwhite working class shift to the right. As for New Hampshire, Harris will be the first Democrat to lose Sullivan County since Al Gore in 2000.

Since votes are still being tallied, I haven't yet done comparisons to 2020 in raw vote totals yet, but it's probably a safe bet there was a turnout drop in some or most of these jurisdictions.