Biggest Disappointments

Apache County, Arizona--As badly as Democrats were rebuked by Hispanic voters this year, it appears based on county-level reports that they also took it on the chin with indigenous voters, with one of the clearest examples coming from this key swing state.

Yuma County, Arizona--Hillary came within a couple points of victory here in 2016. Eight years later, Trump +20. I'm sure there will be plenty who will insist until till their last breath that it had nothing to do with the border though just as they insisted when we saw the first big GOP shift in border counties four years ago.

Mississippi County, Arkansas--Long-time Yellow Dog Democrat stronghold with large black population that was a two-time near miss for Obama. Nearly 2-1 for Trump in 2024, exemplifying the magnitude of Democrats' problems in Arkansas. Not sure if black voters are leaving, realigning, or not showing up in disproportionate numbers for things to have gotten this bad. Perhaps a combination of the three.

Imperial County, California--Right up there with Webb County, TX, in the competition for the biggest Democratic collapse in the country among counties with a population of more than 50,000. It went from a 20+ point Biden win to an outright Trump victory in only four years.

San Bernardino County, California--Twenty years of Democratic progress in the Inland Empire erased in one cycle. Goes from a double-digit Biden win in 2020 to a 2024 Trump victory.

San Joaquin County, California--The first Central Valley county to flip blue (Jerry McNerney flipped the seat in 2006) also shifts double-digits toward the GOP for both Trump and Garvey. Kind of amazing House Democrats held up so well in California given the collapse at the top of the ticket.

Adams County, Colorado--Two regions of Colorado shifted to the right in 2024. The first was the rural southern part of the state. The second was the northeastern part of the Denver metro area. Both are heavily Hispanic. The shift to the GOP could possibly have cost us a House seat in CO-03. The shift to the GOP definitely cost us a House seat in CO-08.

New Haven County, Connecticut--Whenever I make predictions for Connecticut, I fail to take into account the large Puerto Rican population. I'm guessing they played a large role in the state's underperformance, and in this part of Connecticut specifically.

Miami-Dade County, Florida-- From a 30-point Hillary win in 2016 to an 11-point Trump win in 2024. Has there ever been this big of a partisan shift in this short of a time from an area with this large of a population at any time in American history?

Palm Beach County, Florida--When it comes to House incumbents in the Sunshine State in danger of losing their seats moving forward, I would say the most vulnerable are not Republicans, but the three Democrats in previously deep blue Jewish strongholds. Jared Moskowitz, Lois Frankel, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz all prevailed by single-digit margins this year. We'll see if any of them are still in Congress after four more years of unfriendly demographic shifts.

Duval County, Florida--Four years ago, I'd hoped that the Jacksonville area would cancel out some of the Republican gains elsewhere in the state, but they flipped back to Trump this year too.

Lowndes County, Georgia--The closer you got to the Florida state line, the worse the Democratic numbers were compared to four years ago. The Valdosta area has been locked in place with the same modest GOP advantage for two generations now.

Latah County, Idaho--I didn't see this one coming. The home to the University of Idaho had been trending Democrat for a few cycles but swung hard the other direction this year, giving Trump an 8-point win.

Henderson County, Illinois--We're a generation removed from double-digit Democratic wins for Gore and Kerry in this small rural county across the Mississippi River from Burlington, Iowa. This year it went for Trump by nearly 40 (!) points. It's an extreme reminder that without Chicagoland, Illinois would be in as bad of shape for the Democrats as Iowa.

Lake County, Indiana--Holy hell! What's going on in northwestern Indiana?!? I was caught off balance when Biden won by "only" 13 points in the home of Gary. Four years later, Harris only wins by 5. All of northwest Indiana is a dumpster fire for Democrats, canceling out the gains in metropolitan Indianapolis and then some. Frank Mrvan is probably living on borrowed time. Any idea what's going on here? Demographic changes with black flight and white exurban growth?

Clinton County, Iowa--The Mississippi River Valley counties that were all blue in both Obama elections continued to stampede toward the Republicans this year. Clinton County, home of Rita Hart and a mid-sized industrial city, was Obama's second-strongest Iowa county in 2012 with a 20+ point win. Twelve years later, Trump won by nearly 20 points.

Sedgwick County, Kansas--All of the attention regarding the realignment of moderate Republicans in the Sunflower State tends to be in the Kansas City area, but Laura Kelly's gubernatorial victories wouldn't have happened if she hadn't also flipped Wichita. But it remains stubbornly red in federal races, shifting a point further in Trump's direction this year.

Kenton County, Kentucky--After Andy Beshear's 2023 re-election was made possible with substantial help from the conservative southern suburbs of Cincinnati, it was reasonable to expect it might be the sort of place shifting anti-MAGA this year. Nothing doing. Every single one of Kentucky's 120 counties was redder than in 2020, including those that are home to the Cincinnati suburbs.

Cameron Parish, Louisiana--The coastal parish that's most representative of Louisiana Cajun country went twice for Bill Clinton and voted for Mary Landrieu as recently as 2008. Fast forward to 2024 and Donald Trump won the place with an eye-popping 93% of the vote. That's gotta make it the reddest "county" in the nation that ever voted for Bill Clinton.

St. James Parish, Louisiana--Over the last several cycles, one parish after another in the Mississippi Delta has been flipping red. Three more did this year in the Pelican State, including this one. Is black flight really that substantial there or is it just really low turnout among black voters?

Kennebec County, Maine--A generation ago, the counties that were home to Augusta, Lewiston, Waterville, and Auburn frequently went bluer than anywhere in coastal Maine. That's decidedly not the case anymore. Androscoggin County went Trump four years ago and Kennebec County joined them in 2024.

Bristol County, Massachusetts--Gore won this working-class enclave by more than 2-1 in 2000. Democratic support has been steadily plummeting since and held out for Harris by only 1 point in 2024. No Republican has won a single Massachusetts county in a Presidential election since 1988, but I bet Bristol County ends the streak in 2028.

Eaton County, Michigan--Part of the Lansing metro area, this county seems like it should be realigning in the Democratic column, but this year it voted against Harris, voted against their sitting Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin in her bid for the Senate, and voted for a Republican House member to replace Slotkin.

Macomb County, Michigan--Fifteen years after Democrats bailed out the U.S. auto industry from annihilation and 12 years after the Republicans ran a nominee for President vowing to "let Detroit go bankrupt", the county most associated with autoworkers rewards the party that saved their industry by giving Trump a 14-point win.

Blue Earth County, Minnesota--The hometown of Tim Walz seemed to go out of its way to humiliate him last month. In nearly 20 years of past elections with Walz on the ballot, Mankato delivered with above-average numbers for him. I'm truly at a loss as to what went so wrong here.

Marshall County, Mississippi--Technically not part of the Delta, I'm guessing this northern Mississippi county had more whites voting Democrat than most places in the Magnolia State back when it was going 60% Democrat not so long ago. It officially flipped to Trump this year after several cycles of accelerating decline. Not sure if it's Yellow Dog Democrats realigning or exurban sprawl from Memphis driving this fast change.