Market Intelligent Brief

US JOLTS Job Openings Actual 6.882M (Forecast 6.89M, Previous 6.946M, Revised 7.24M)

US CB Consumer Confidence Actual 91.8 (Forecast 87.9, Previous 91.2, Revised 91)

Geopolitics and the Iran Conflict

• The Wall Street Journal reported late Sunday that Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed.

• Stocks soared on the news. S&P 500 futures rose 0.8% in early trading.

• Secretary of War Hegseth stated: "If there is no Iran deal, we'll negotiate with bombs." He also confirmed a regime change has occurred in Iran and that US strikes are causing widespread desertions.

• Top US General Caine confirmed the US military has taken out over 150 ships in Iran's navy and has begun the first overland B-52 missions against Iran.

• Hegseth on the Strait of Hormuz: more vessels are passing through today than before, but the strait remains largely disrupted. Only about 6 vessels per day are crossing, compared to roughly 135 per day under normal conditions.

• Trump posted on Truth Social urging the UK and other countries to "get your own oil" or buy from the US, telling affected nations to go to the Hormuz Strait and take jet fuel themselves.

• A US-Israel airstrike hit Iran's Qeshm Island in the Hormuz Strait at 7:55 AM ET.

• Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed they targeted a ship in the Gulf.

• A Kuwaiti crude tanker was attacked near Dubai port early Tuesday, causing a fire and hull damage with no reported injuries.

• Russia's Lavrov warned the Middle East crisis may spill over into a wider conflict.

Energy and Oil

• Brent crude is trading around $108 per barrel, up nearly 50% since the conflict began.

• West Texas Intermediate traded near $103 per barrel after erasing an earlier advance to about $107.

• US average retail gasoline surpassed $4 per gallon for the first time since August 2022, per GasBuddy.

• A Reuters poll now expects US crude to average $76.78/bbl in 2026, up sharply from the $60.38 forecast in February. Brent is expected to average $82.85/bbl, up from $63.85.

• Russian Baltic oil exports dropped to a 4-year low following Ukrainian drone strikes on crude oil loading facilities at Russia's Ust-Luga port.

• South Korea proposed a $17.3 billion additional budget to mitigate the impact of the Middle East conflict. South Korea's president urged the public to participate in fuel saving and called the shift to renewable energy "more urgent than ever."

US Economic Data (March 31, 2026)

• US Case-Shiller 20 YoY: 1.18% actual vs. 1.38% forecast vs. 1.4% prior. A miss to the downside, showing home price growth is cooling.

• US House Price Index MoM: 0.1% actual, in line with forecast and prior.

• US House Price Index YoY: 1.6% actual vs. 1.8% prior.

• US Redbook YoY: 6.9% actual vs. 6.7% prior. Retail sales holding up.

• Effective fed funds rate: 3.64%, unchanged from March 27.

• Secured Overnight Financing Rate: 3.63%, unchanged.

Still to come today:

• US Chicago PMI at 9:45 AM ET (forecast: 55, prior: 57.7)

• US JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 AM ET (forecast: 6.89M, prior: 6.946M)

• US CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00 AM ET (forecast: 87.9, prior: 91.2)

• Fed speakers: Goolsbee at 12:00 PM ET, Schmid at 1:10 PM ET, Barr at 3:00 PM ET, Bowman at 5:10 PM ET.

Bonds and Treasuries

• Treasuries extended their rally. The 10-year yield fell 2 basis points to 4.33%.

• German 2-year Schatz yield came in at 2.62%, up from 2.27% prior, reflecting rising rate expectations in Europe.