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Michael  wrote a clean takedown of “simple cause → simple fix” thinking, and why it reliably produces expensive surprises.

The useful move here is his framing shift: stop asking who is underperforming and start asking what system is generating that behavior as a normal output. Incentives, traffic, learning, org performance. Same pattern, different costume.

If you lead teams, design workflows, or ship products, this is a good reminder that “obvious” is often just “presentable.”

Why Simple Thinking Produces Bad Decisions
Mar 30
at
4:00 PM
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