I have to laugh. In discussing 2024 with my father a month or so ago, the first name out of my mouth for a Republican that would make sense if the party wanted to tack away from Trump was Scott. I just don't see the base of the party really getting behind him, though.

On a separate matter, I did want to go into is the evangelical politics matter. Arguably, the Trump years gave them a foothold they lacked in prior administrations. They likely think that January 2017-2021 was extremely successful given the longer term results we've seen so far (and are likely to continue seeing from the current Supreme Court makeup).

I wouldn't expect them to go quietly into the night, regardless of shrinking religious participation. I suspect they'll still seek their pound of flesh quite fervently, looking to entrench their progress from the Trump years.