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U.S. Unemployment Rate expectations from Goldman Sachs — We expect the US unemployment rate to drift higher for two reasons:
👉 AI Productivity: Trend productivity has jumped to 2.1%, meaning fewer new jobs are needed to drive GDP growth.
👉 Higher Breakeven: We estimate "breakeven" payroll growth at just 50k
P.S. way more on the U.S. Economy (including special/alternative data/indicators like this one + also leading indicators + recession probabilities) is coming to town soon via the following reports:
✍️ The State of the U.S. Economy in 75 Charts (4th edition)
✍️ Decoding the U.S. Economy Through Sleek Alternative Data
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Mav
May 11
at
7:52 PM