According to my simulations, Ohio State would remain a pretty sizable favorite in the current iteration of the CFP bracket. This is partially because they are a very good team, but also because of how easy of a path the #5 seed has in the bracket this year.

To illustrate this point, I ran several hypothetical brackets swapping out someone else for the 5 seed with Ohio State. Each of them would be substantially more likely to make the semi-final round if they had the 5 seed:

Oregon: 53.8% -> 77.6%

Penn State: 46.6% -> 71.5%

Georgia: 30.7% -> 78.1%

Indiana: 12.3% -> 52.9%

I don’t think the advantage outweighs the risk of getting a significant QB in that first round, but you’re looking very, very pretty as the 5 seed.