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It has almost been 100 days since Trump’s inauguration, and here’s why I’m not so awfully worried—at least not from my position of relative safety an ocean away.

Never in the history of modern politics has anyone burned so much political capital so swiftly. Just take a moment to consider this:

1) Trumpnomics simply doesn’t work. I get it. Trump isn’t completely insane, he has a plan, and the plan is to re-industrialize America. (It’s great to be a digital service economy and all, but manufacturing, and civilian factories, are critical in times of war, and it’s not unlikely that the US and China will get into a fight in the near future). The only problem, however, is that Trump’s tariff strategy won’t work. America is getting weaker, not stronger. Trump may not care that the dollar is plummeting, (which could even be part of his plan to make American industries more competitive—like Italy’s back in the day, yay!), and he may not be awfully concerned about stocks either. But now that the interest on US bonds are rising rapidly, and recently surpassed even Greek government bonds (damn!), panic is starting to spread in the White House. If interests keep going up, the US risks going bankrupt. Just like Trump’s casinos. Hey Detroit, but on a country scale. Goodbye tax breaks for the rich, or…

(Sure, sometimes it can be smart to stimulate certain strategic industries by imposing tariffs. Just a shame that Trump has no idea how to do that. Declaring trade war on all countries, SIMULTANEOUSLY, and not excluding tariffs on many of the imported components that go into American-made products—not very smart. Not only is Trump pre-Montesquieu, apparently he's even pre-Adam Smith. That's pretty low stage for a modern leader.)

2) Capital flight, brain drain and tourists staying away. People are voting with their feet, their credit cards and their investment portfolios. People are seeking greener pastures elsewhere. America’s loss, everyone else’s gain. Good luck with your government deficits.

3) Trump has made far-right populism less appealing in Europe and Canada. Just like the sh*tshow of Brexit made it less appealing for other Europeans to leave the union, the circus of Trump’s far-right politics is similarly making it less appealing for voters in other nations to choose a similar path. Even Nigel Farage is moderating himself now. So thanks Donald for showing our rednecks that a little moderation maybe isn’t such a bad thing after all.

4) Europe is getting its act together: Ironically, Trump has done more for European integration than most Brussels bureaucrats. Europeans, Brits and Canadians are moving closer together. Even if the US will choose a different path in the future, the fact that madness is only one election away will make US allies less prone to rely too much on uncle Sam. The other members of NATO are taking responsibility for their own destiny. And honestly, I think it’s a good thing. (Germany’s auto workers also needed something else to do now when no one wanted their cars. Employed workers building panzers is probably better than unemployed Germans in the streets and the ballot boxes. The irony of Germany becoming the arsenal of democracy isn’t entirely lost on me.)

5) It’s the diplomacy, stupid! There’s a reason why diplomacy has always been considered a most valuable art in the game of international politics—and Mr. Trump-they’re-kissing-my-ass and Mr. Musk-shut-up-little-man-I’m-gonna-turn-off-your-army’s-internet don’t have many ounces of this delicate skill. Over time, and on average, iteration after iteration, the low skilled are gonna lose out to the high skilled. Pissing off everyone, repeatedly, is not how you secure a good deal. Additionally, if not only all the liberals and trans people are enemies, but also Mexicans and Latinos in general, most foreigners (apart from Russians) but especially Canadians, Europeans and Chinese, and now also federal employes (the “parasite class”), veterans (“suckers”), university people and more or less everyone who’s not into guns and jesus—well, then it’s obvious that in the end you’ll be losing against math.

6) Incompetence. The same principle of “over time, and on average, iteration after iteration” also applies to the aspect of competence. Trump isn’t super competent at governing. And he doesn’t like to surround himself with those who are. In addition, most competent people wouldn’t want to ruin their careers by working in such a disastrous administration. Do I need to explain the consequences of not having competent people to run the government of a 340 million country? The results speak for themselves.

So how can I say that I’m not worried with all these obviously bad things going on? Well, if you add all of these bullet points together, it all in all makes it far less likely that Trump, or whoever wants to follow him (hello Vance) wins the next election. As I’ve said before, there might be a silver lining to the whole ordeal in the way that the pendulum is prone to swing in the opposite direction next time. You can’t argue with reality, and as Americans discover that Trump isn’t making America great again, but making it the laughing stock of the world (tariffing the penguins in the south Pacific!?) and making common folks poor again; the appeal of electing another one just like him vanes in favor of trying out something completely different.

Call me a naive optimist, but it’s spring and the sun just started revisiting southern Scandinavia. I can’t stop thinking that Trump might just be the reset of the whole system that we needed. And if we can get that without 13 years of world wars and concentration camps, that’s a heluva good deal! The world order we’ve lived in for the past 80 years came at a very high price. If the next world order can emerge from the short-lived shenanigans of a 80-year-old reality TV personality and ex-casino owner who’d rather play golf than govern, that’s not so bad after all. In all earnesty: America, I love you for this. Good show. Excellent memes.

From the recent developments (especially the one with the penguins) my initial fears have turned into laughter and my thighs are yet to recover from all the slapping. Sure, things can go horribly wrong, but I don’t think we should be guided by fear when the people in the White House are so utterly incompetent and unintentionally funny. Your wallet may hurt a little extra the next four years, but the laughs are on the house. (I have added a link in the comments field that explains the health benefits of laughter. You can thank me later.)

So, cheer up, let’s start imagining what a post-Trump America could look like. Let’s start co-developing the world order we deserve. For humans and penguins alike.

Apr 16
at
10:03 AM
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