"2004 did have some critical things happen in Bush's electoral favor since 2000."

Yes indeed. He ignored warnings so that he didn't prevent the worst single act of terrorism on American soil, promoted and decorated those who also ignored the warnings while firing some of those who gave them, and then attacked and occupied two countries, one of which had done absolutely nothing to the U.S. during his presidency. The fact that he was instead treated as the necessary protector of the United States whom it was unpatriotic to oppose should give us a lot of pause in predicting how a majority of the American electorate may evaluate Trump today. Remember, they're convinced the economy was better under his disastrous stewardship than during this historic recovery.