Generally, hopes for China's 5 year plan at the NPC tend to be diminished with realities. But I believe China and Japan are probably the two countries best poised to deal with their shrinking populations using new AI and robot technologies. The extreme tech-leaning distribution of their students/education system beats the Western Liberal Arts "do what you like and we'll pay for it" system of education in the new environment. I do not believe this is very soon, but the long run must take take this into account.
We may be entering an era where the axiom that a growing population is the best way to grow GDP is replaced by an axiom where a growing population will be the one with the highest idle and crime rates.
I do believe that a command economy is not the worst economy for what is coming. The political paralysis and lack of top down decision making in the US, which has been a strength, may prove very difficult for the people facing significant unemployment and tech replacement. In past big tech waves (agriculture-industrial, industrial-service), the education system expanded greatly to take in excess young workers, giving time and training to ease the transition. The changes coming may be too fast for any similar response, and the last few decades maxed out the "postponing reality with education" strategy.
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Feb 27
at
6:06 PM
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