Yes, but....ultimately the Helms/Hunt race was largely shaped by presidential coattails. 2026 of course isn't a presidential year, and if it were it might not help the GOP. The 1983-84 cycle got redder as it progressed; if anything changes over 2025-26 it's likely to be the reverse.

Though I wouldn't call Tillis "controversial". To the extent he is, it's because of what others in his party are doing, not so much him personally.