This chart is a nice summation of why I think the Third Way “combative centrism” strategy for 2028 is going to fail.

In the 1990s the moderate wing of the party could stiff-arm the left because it had the votes to win primaries.

That’s no longer the case. Per Gallup’s polling a majority of Democrats have self-identified as liberal since ~2020 and the share has only gone up since. Third Way’s polling finds that just 39% of likely Democratic primary voters self-identify as “moderate” or “conservative.”

The “bulldoze the left” strategy isn’t going to work anymore because the moderate wing of the party doesn’t have the votes. Being persuasive not combative is probably a better strategy for winning the intra-party fight.