Did Iran make a “big mistake” by launching missiles at Israel?

Israeli Prime Minister is feeling very triumphant these days, and with reason. Israel has scored numerous tactical victories, the world has shifted its attention away from Gaza, and the United States is backing his every move.

After today’s attack where Iran launched some 180 missiles at Israel, Netanyahu said that Iran had “made a big mistake” and would “pay for it.” Dutifully, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said that Washington was coordinating a response with Israel. Meanwhile, two of President Joe Biden’s top advisers—Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein—are pressing for action against Iran.

Did Iran make a big mistake? No, they didn’t, but that doesn’t make the situation any less grim.

Why did Iran launch the missiles?

Iran had vowed months ago to respond to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, where Haniyeh had gone to attend the swearing in of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. But they hadn’t done anything.

That inaction had effects. Israel probably understood that Iran was doing what it usually does—play the long game, waiting for an opportune moment to act. Even so, the inaction suggested to Israel that they had more room to act, and that, if an opportunity to try to fundamentally alter the balance of power in the region was to present itself, Israel would have to take more action.

But the inaction was also understood in the region, in Iran and elsewhere, as a sign of weakness. The Iranian government was facing harsh criticism from some of its allies and from its own hardliners for its lack of response.

After Israel assassinated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, and with him, a senior figure in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, Abbas Nilforushan, Iran could not afford to wait any longer.

Was this attack similar to the one in April when Iran launched hundreds of missiles and drones?

This attack was an escalation from the one in April, but not a major one. This time, Iran fired only missiles, no drones, and fewer of them. But the ones they did fire were of a higher quality. They also did warn the United States that the attack was coming, but with much less advance time.

As a result, from what we have seen on video and what has been stated, more shrapnel fell on Israel and more of the missiles hit, although the vast majority were still intercepted.

So did the attack fail?

Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanyahu would like us to think so, but it seems more likely to have accomplished what was intended. That intention was for Iran to take some action, to make it clear to Israel and the U.S. that it can hit Tel Aviv, and do so with some precision.

But Iran is well aware that Netanyahu is trying to goad them into an attack that would bring about a much more forceful response and which could draw the United States into a war of regime change. The prospects of success in such an endeavor are dubious, but even if it fails, Iran and the region would suffer unprecedented damage and death. Tehran did not want to launch an attack that could provoke that kind of response, and they didn’t.

Iran took action, which they hope will, if not silence their critics, at least cool them off a bit. And their warning to Israel against further escalation, along with their signals to the west that they want to pursue diplomacy—signals which Washington is conspicuously ignoring, but Europe may be picking up on—demonstrates that there are options here.

Iran’s hope is that they demonstrated with this action that a war against them will not serve anyone’s interests, and their other actions show they are presenting an alternative.

Does Israel see a war as being in their interests?

This is where Iran’s gambit could fail. Israel’s agenda is not only ongoing conflict, but specifically to see regime change in Iran. The Israelis, especially Netanyahu, have spent years painting Iran as the root of all evil in the region. In the past year, they have engaged Iranian-allied groups Hamas and Hezbollah and they clearly did great damage to both organizations.

Israel is well aware they can’t oust the Iranian leadership without significant help from the United States, and it would take more than just the weaponry the U.S. has been provided. But they believe they can get the U.S. to join with them. But given that the idea of direct U.S. involvement in another Middle East war is unpopular with Americans of all political parties, Israel and its hawkish allies in Washington need to be able to whip up much more support in the U.S., which means goading Iran into a much bigger action than what we saw today.

So what’s next?

The next move will be Israel’s. While attention has been on the Iranian missile attack, Israel has not slowed at all in its bombing operations in Lebanon and their ongoing attacks in Gaza. Israel is ready to launch a ground invasion, but it seems, from the conflicting reports from the Israeli and Lebanese sides, that they tried a limited feint in southern Lebanon and still encountered more resistance than expected.

Eventually Israel will launch a ground operation in Lebanon. If they really intend the return of Israeli citizens to their homes in the north, it is very difficult to see how that happens without an Israeli occupation in some part of the south. So, while Israel claims there will only be a “limited” ground operation, their stated goal doesn’t match that plan.

But the Israeli government has other options. They were quite willing to forget about the remaining hostages in Gaza, and they are likely willing to break their pledge to residents of the north. They do that by switching the focus to Iran, which means a significant escalation in response to today’s missile barrage. It remains to be seen what path Israel will choose.