A recession lowers GDP (and thus reduces tax revenue) without lowering debt, making debt harder to pay off. Interest rates might go down if this were a demand-induced recession, like the Volcker recessions of the early 1980s — but a tariff recession would be a supply-induced recession, more similar to the oil shocks of the 1970s that made imports more expensive. That will tend to create stagflation, forcing interest rates higher and making the debt harder to pay off.1 As for investment in the U.S., it will be hurt by policy uncertainty, lower consumption, and more expensive inputs.