Turning to the US, a heavy morning of data releases includes trade, initial jobless claims, industrial production, and Empire Manufacturing. However, the headliner is undoubtedly retail sales.

Households are expected to have both slowed their spending growth and modified composition in response to the initial (concentrated) price shock from the conflict in the Middle East (specifically, higher gas prices).

Consequently, the consensus forecast anticipates monthly retail sales growth to drop from 1.7% in March to 0.5% in April (with ex-auto falling from 1.9% to 0.7%, and the "control group" dipping from 0.7% to 0.4%).

The broader question, especially looking forward, is the extent to which the more generalized rise in inflation recently will trigger some demand destruction.

#economy #growth #markets #retailsales