Oil prices are rising again after no deal with Iran was reached. Uncertainty over the inflation outlook is having a major impact on interest rate markets.

The 2-year Treasury yield crossed above the fed funds rate for the first time in 3 years, which could signal a pivot by the Fed to tighter monetary policy in the months ahead. On the longer end of the yield curve, the 30-year Treasury is close to a key breakout in the chart below.

The 30-year is trading in an ascending triangle pattern since 2023 and is currently making a smaller pullback off the 5% resistance level. A breakout would put the 30-year at the highest level since 2007.