Former governor Roy Cooper has frozen the field for the Democratic primary for next year. We won't know whether he'll run for the seat until mid or late summer. But if he does -- it's going to get a LOT of outside dark money funding.

And unlike Cunningham or Beasley, Cooper is battle tested. He's popular with Ds, indies and squishy Rs so Tillis will have to WORK to keep his seat. But if Cooper runs, Tillis has a good chance of losing.