Three forces are converging simultaneously in March 2026. Most commentary is only tracking one of them.

1. Hedge fund gross leverage at 292.8% — all-time high per Goldman Sachs prime brokerage

2. 73.8% of that leverage repo-funded at zero haircut (Fed FEDS Notes)

3. Brent +40% since Feb 28. Hormuz effectively closed.

The April 28–29 FOMC is Powell's last scheduled meeting. Warsh still blocked by Tillis. One more dot shifting to "hold through 2026" flips the median to zero cuts — 2yr reprices 25–35bp on the day.

Most people are treating this as an oil trade. It isn't. It's a leverage unwind trade expressed through energy prices. The S&P is functionally a leveraged long on oil normalization right now — when Brent fell 5.3% on a single Monday, the S&P climbed 1%. That's your regime signal.

The full framework covers three questions:

— What's the 30-day outlook and why the causal chain runs through repo, not oil

— How the April dot plot becomes a binary detonator

— Why forced liquidation fails before the first sell order is placed (the repo collateral problem, not the execution problem)

Every number sourced. Fed statements, BIS-FSB January 2026 paper, OFR hedge fund monitor, Almgren-Chriss, Resonanz Capital. No inference presented as fact.

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